The 2026 Victoria Derby is a Group 1 over 2500 metres at Flemington, Race 7 at 4:20pm AEDT on Saturday 31 October, worth $3 million. Cormier heads Punt Hub’s displayed market at $4.60, ahead of Stormy Marco ($4.80) and True Rebel ($8.00). Our value bet is No. 9 Icy You at $17.00: a neck off the Geelong Classic winner, with staying form and a soft-track win. We’re against Stormy Marco at the price.
The field has 16 starters and two emergencies, with no scratchings marked in the snapshot. Quick Finish is the first filly in the race since 1990. Follow the live Derby field and odds.
Victoria Derby 2026 tips at a glance
Value bet: 9. Icy You at $17.00, barrier 10, 57kg, Craig Williams. A staying case at a double-figure price.
Punt Hub selections: 9. Icy You.
Against: 2. Stormy Marco at $4.80. Respect his Group 1 credentials, but the wide draw and unproven 2500m make the price too short for us.
Victoria Derby 2026 key facts
Detail | Victoria Derby 2026 | Date | Saturday 31 October 2026 |
|---|---|
Venue | Flemington, Melbourne, Victoria |
Race / start | Race 7, Howden Victoria Derby, 4:20pm AEDT |
Distance / grade | 2500 metres / Group 1 |
Conditions | Set weights, three-year-olds; apprentices cannot claim |
Prizemoney | $3,000,000; $1,800,000 to the winner |
Field | 16 starters plus Meet The Prince and Locked In as emergencies |
Weights | 57kg colts/geldings; 55kg filly Quick Finish |
Track / rail | Good 4 at acceptances; a separate official listing shows Soft 5. Rail true at acceptances. |
Forecast | 95% rain chance; 4–20mm; thunderstorms likely; maximum 23°C |
2025 winner | Observer (Mark Zahra / Ciaron Maher) |
Times are AEDT. 4:20pm in Melbourne is 3:20pm in Brisbane and 1:20pm in Perth.
Victoria Derby 2026 field, barriers and odds
Odds are Punt Hub’s best displayed win price across the bookmakers Punt Hub compares. Barriers below are the original declared gates, before any emergency withdrawals.
No. | Horse | Barrier | Kg | Jockey | Trainer | Form | Win odds | 1 | Cormier | 3 | 57 | Jamie Mott | Paul Messara & Leah Gavranich | x0843 | $4.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Stormy Marco | 16 | 57 | James McDonald | Chris Waller | x2954 | $4.80 |
3 | True Rebel | 17 | 57 | Billy Egan | Danny O’Brien | 3121 | $8.00 |
4 | King Snitz | 6 | 57 | Damian Lane | Shane Jackson | 9311 | $12.00 |
5 | Murshidi | 18 | 57 | Blake Shinn | Ciaron Maher | x7321 | $13.00 |
6 | Vallice | 14 | 57 | Mark Zahra | Ciaron Maher | 44522 | $14.00 |
7 | Skua | 13 | 57 | John Allen | Ciaron Maher | 31662 | $15.00 |
8 | Cignetti | 12 | 57 | William Pike | Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | x1233 | $20.00 |
9 | Icy You | 10 | 57 | Craig Williams | Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | 21242 | $17.00 |
10 | True Tone | 15 | 57 | Jason Collett | Chris Waller | 44213 | $23.00 |
11 | Hierarchy | 4 | 57 | Ben Melham | Anthony & Sam Freedman | 3148 | $13.00 |
12 | Written Empire | 2 | 57 | Harry Coffey | Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 4136 | $41.00 |
13 | Russian Rock | 7 | 57 | Michael Dee | Michael Trotter | 3x154 | $31.00 |
14 | Cold Shower | 5 | 57 | Jett Stanley | Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | 316 | $71.00 |
15 | King Winston | 9 | 57 | Daniel Stackhouse | Greg Eurell | 0245 | $51.00 |
16 | Quick Finish | 11 | 55 | Jye McNeil | Tony & Calvin McEvoy | 5111 | $23.00 |
17e | Meet The Prince | 1 | 57 | Jackson Radley | Patrick Kearney | x0622 | $201.00 |
18e | Locked In | 8 | 57 | Ben Allen | Ken & Kasey Keys | 9x749 | $201.00 |
An “e” denotes an emergency, not a confirmed starter. Check withdrawals, riders and effective gates after final scratchings on Saturday morning; keep the live Derby odds comparison handy.
Victoria Derby 2026 market overview
Only three runners are below $10. Icy You has eased from the feed’s opening $16.00 to $17.00; Stormy Marco has shortened from $5.00 to $4.80. Russian Rock has the largest proportional firming among accepted runners, $41.00 to $31.00, while King Winston has eased from $41.00 to $51.00. These are feed opening-to-snapshot comparisons, not an all-bookmaker betting ledger.
Six of the past ten winners started below $10. But Manzoice and Johnny Get Angry both won at $21: the market has been useful without having exclusive rights to the answer.
Our Victoria Derby value bet: Icy You
Icy You is our value bet at $17.00. He has no flashy win, but he has evidence he can keep running when the sprint is over. That matters when the distance is a question for every runner.
A neck separates him from a shorter-priced rival
At Geelong on 21 October he raced second, led at the 400m and was run down by Murshidi over 2200m. Both carried 57kg, as they do here. It was a close, sustained effort over the longest lead-up trip among the main form lines.
Geelong Classic, 21 October | Icy You | Murshidi | Finish | 2nd, beaten a neck | 1st |
|---|---|---|
Weight then / Derby | 57kg / 57kg | 57kg / 57kg |
Declared Derby barrier | 10 | 18 |
Punt Hub snapshot | $17.00 | $13.00 |
He has earned a crack at the longer trip
His five starts read second, first, second, fourth, second. The win was over 1600m on Soft 7 at Echuca; he has since placed at 1800m and 2200m. That does not prove 2500m, but it is a clear staying progression. His early trials were so slow that his trainer doubted he was a racehorse.
The filly provides another direct form line
Quick Finish beat him by 0.40 lengths over 1800m at Caulfield on 19 September, with Icy You giving her 2kg (59kg to 57kg). She gets the same 2kg from him here (55kg to 57kg), so the weights between them are unchanged. The extra 700m is the argument for him. She then won the Ethereal Stakes.
The case against
His only win is a maiden. Fourth on Heavy 10 at Flemington shows he can compete there, not that he excels in deep going. Geelong was Listed company; this is Group 1. A slow tempo and sprint home would blunt his stamina edge.
Victoria Derby 2026 contenders and form analysis
Icy You (9)
Craig Williams rides again after Geelong. Barrier 10 gives him options without guaranteeing cover. His chance improves if the race asks a sustained question rather than turning into a last-300m sprint.
Cormier (1)
Third in the Spring Champion Stakes after leading, he finished ahead of Stormy Marco. Barrier three should help Jamie Mott find an economical position. The question is whether he can lead and still stay another 500m.
Stormy Marco (2)
Group 1-placed, with James McDonald riding and Chris Waller chasing a fourth Derby, he deserves respect. His Spring Champion fourth came in a race controlled nearer the speed. We’re against him on Saturday. At the snapshot price he must overcome barrier 16, a seven-day backup and an untested distance. It is the price against those risks that we oppose.
True Rebel (3)
He beat Skua by half a length in the Vase last Saturday. His trainer calls him relaxed, but his Rebel Dane pedigree is sprint-oriented and his former rider has reservations about 2500m. Billy Egan rides from barrier 17.
King Snitz (4), Vallice (6) and Cignetti (8)
A nose separated King Snitz and Vallice in the Caulfield Classic, with Cignetti a close third. Their Derby barriers are six, 14 and 12. The margins are tight enough that the market positions are not a reliable ranking.
Quick Finish (16)
Three straight wins, including the Ethereal Stakes, and 55kg make the filly more than a footnote. She drew 11 and has already beaten male rivals. Her two latest wins were on good tracks, and she has still to prove 2500m.
The rest of the field: Skua was second in the Vase; Murshidi, Icy You and True Tone filled the Geelong placings. Hierarchy and Written Empire seek improvement from the Vase. Russian Rock, Cold Shower and King Winston need to bridge their latest margins. Meet The Prince and Locked In require withdrawals to gain a start.
Victoria Derby 2026 speed map and barriers
A provisional map from recent racing patterns; the wide-drawn runners’ early decisions can change it.
Position | Likely shape | Leaders | Skua can press forward; Cormier and Cold Shower offer other on-speed options. |
|---|---|
On or near the pace | Icy You, Quick Finish and Vallice; cover will depend on how many cross. |
Midfield | Cignetti and Murshidi if they obtain cover; Written Empire can use an inside gate. |
Back | Stormy Marco and True Rebel may be restrained from wide gates; Hierarchy has settled back recently. |
Pressure from the wider gates could make it a stamina test, which suits the logic behind Icy You. A quiet first half instead rewards positioning and acceleration. History says: seven of the past ten winners drew three to seven; three drew ten or wider. Those are winner counts, not gate-specific strike rates. Emergency withdrawals also compress this year’s effective barriers.
Flemington track condition and weather for the Victoria Derby
The acceptance snapshot was Good 4, rail true, while a separate official program lists Soft 5. Those snapshots are not a confirmed raceday rating. The Bureau forecast checked for this preview gives a 95% rain chance, 4–20mm and likely thunderstorms, with northerlies turning west to southwesterly. Timing matters as much as the total.
Runner | Verified wet-track evidence | What it establishes | Icy You | Won Echuca 1600m on Soft 7; fourth in Flemington 1800m on Heavy 10 | Wet experience; not a proven heavy-track specialist |
|---|---|---|
Quick Finish | Fifth at Bendigo 1400m on Soft 6 | Limited evidence, before her winning run |
True Rebel | Third at Bendigo 1300m on Soft 6 | A placing, not a long-distance wet record |
Cignetti / Vallice | Third / second in the Flemington Super Impose in wet conditions | Both have run well on a wet Flemington track |
These are verified runs, not complete wet-track records. Watch the Carbine Club mile and Wakeful 2000m for rail bias and whether leaders are stopping.
Victoria Derby trends and statistics
Market: four favourites won in 2016–2025; six winners started below $10. A small sample, not a selection rule.
Age, sex and weight: restricted to three-year-olds. The last filly winner was Frances Tressady in 1923; Quick Finish receives the standard 2kg sex allowance.
Draw: seven of the last ten winners came from gates three to seven; Goldrush Guru and Extra Brut both won from 13.
Trainers: Waller has three wins; Maher has two, including Hitotsu in partnership with David Eustace.
Jockeys: John Allen won twice in the last ten editions, on Extra Brut and Hitotsu. He rides Skua.
Lead-ups: Observer completed the Vase–Derby double in 2025, the first since Efficient in 2006. True Rebel attempts the same route.
Recent Victoria Derby winners
Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Barrier | Kg | SP | 2025 | Observer | Mark Zahra | Ciaron Maher | 4 | 57 | $2.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | Goldrush Guru | Jamie Kah | Andrew Gluyas | 13 | 57 | $8.00 |
2023 | Riff Rocket | James McDonald | Chris Waller | 5 | 57 | $2.20 |
2022 | Manzoice | Michael Dee | Chris Waller | 7 | 57 | $21.00 |
2021 | Hitotsu | John Allen | Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | 6 | 57 | $4.00 |
2020 | Johnny Get Angry | Lachlan King | Denis Pagan | 5 | 57 | $21.00 |
2019 | Warning | Damien Oliver | Anthony Freedman | 10 | 55.5 | $9.50 |
2018 | Extra Brut | John Allen | Darren Weir | 13 | 55.5 | $10.00 |
2017 | Ace High | Tye Angland | David Payne | 3 | 55.5 | $7.00 |
2016 | Prized Icon | Glyn Schofield | James Cummings | 4 | 55.5 | $17.00 |
In 2025, Observer beat Arcora and Deal Done Fast. Prices above are historical starting prices, not current offers.
Victoria Derby history
First run in 1855, six years before the Melbourne Cup, the Derby began with three consecutive filly winners. Its honour roll includes Phar Lap, Tulloch, Red Anchor and Mahogany. Frances Tressady won in 1923; no filly has won since. Quick Finish’s acceptance revives a contest last attempted by a filly when Lycra finished fourth in 1990.
The distance became 2400 metres with metrication in 1972, then 2500m in 1973. It has held Group 1 status since the grading system began in 1979. Fireworks won in 1867 and 1868. More recently, Hitotsu and Riff Rocket followed Victoria Derby success with Australian Derby wins.
The purse rises from $2 million to $3 million this year, after the Asian Pattern Committee considered downgrading the race and decided to retain its Group 1 status. Further debate on its black-type status is due later this season, and the distance remains 2500m despite calls to shorten it. Observer’s 2025 Vase–Derby double restored a familiar lead-up to the winner’s circle.
Victoria Derby prizemoney
First: $1,800,000
Second: $540,000
Third: $270,000
Fourth: $135,000
Fifth: $75,000
Sixth, seventh and eighth: $60,000 each
Total: $3 million. A 3.5% welfare contribution is deducted before distribution. The conditions also list a $20,000 nominator bonus for qualified horses; it is separate from the eight-place schedule.
Victoria Derby frequently asked questions
When is the 2026 Victoria Derby?
Saturday 31 October at Flemington, Race 7 at 4:20pm AEDT. That is 3:20pm in Brisbane and 1:20pm in Perth.
What distance and conditions apply?
The Derby is a Group 1 over 2500 metres for three-year-olds at set weights: 57kg for colts and geldings, 55kg for the filly Quick Finish.
Who is the Victoria Derby favourite?
Cormier is shortest in Punt Hub’s displayed market at $4.60, ahead of Stormy Marco at $4.80 and True Rebel at $8.00.
Who is Punt Hub tipping?
Punt Hub’s value bet is No. 9 Icy You at $17.00. We are against No. 2 Stormy Marco at the price; no additional selections are nominated.
What is the track condition?
Good 4 at acceptances conflicts with a separate official Soft 5 listing. Rail was true at acceptances. Rain and thunderstorms are forecast; check the latest rating on Saturday.
How many horses run, and are there scratchings?
Sixteen starters and two emergencies were accepted. No scratchings were marked in the odds snapshot. Meet The Prince and Locked In need withdrawals to gain starts.
How much is the Victoria Derby worth?
The 2026 purse is $3 million, including $1.8 million for first. A 3.5% welfare contribution is deducted before distribution.
Who won last year and which trainers have recent success?
Observer won in 2025 for Ciaron Maher and Mark Zahra, ahead of Arcora and Deal Done Fast. Chris Waller has three Derby wins; Maher has two, including one with David Eustace.
Do barriers matter over 2500m?
Seven of the last ten winners drew between three and seven, but that is not a strike rate by gate. Wide-drawn horses can win, and withdrawals change effective barriers.
Why is Quick Finish’s entry unusual?
She is set to be the first filly to run since Lycra in 1990. The last filly winner was Frances Tressady in 1923. She brings three consecutive wins, including the Ethereal Stakes.
How to watch the Victoria Derby
Watch live on Channel 9 and 9Now, with pay-TV coverage on Sky Racing. For track attendance, book through the VRC’s ticket page, which directs bookings to Ticketmaster.