Launceston Cup Day, Wednesday February 26, 2025
Launceston Cup Day 2025: A Massive Day of Racing Awaits!
The Group 3 Launceston Cup (2400m) is the main event in a busy 10-race schedule at the Tasmanian Turf Club this Wednesday afternoon, marking a major racing day in the state.
With clear skies, the track will stay in good condition, and the rail moves out 3m for the entire course, ensuring a great surface all day.
The first race begins at 12:47pm AEDT.
🔥 Stay tuned as we break down each race with in-depth previews, best bets, and value plays!
Race 1. (12:47) Lafm Mdn Plate 1400m
Summary for Race 1:
The race should see Hartfelt leading or sitting prominently, with Wannabe Ziggy and In The Clouds challenging late if the pace allows. Diesel's Sunshine and Star Performer carry more risk, but the former’s speed and the latter’s trial form keep them in the mix.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅ 5: Hartfelt - Strong form, top jockey, great barrier, and market support make it the safest bet to win.
Reasoning: Hartfelt combines strong recent form (two close placings), a perfect place strike rate at the distance, and a favorable barrier. Damian Lane’s booking is a major boost, and the market commentary strongly supports it as the top pick. It’s well-placed to control the race from the front in a moderate maiden field.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 8: In The Clouds - Attractive odds with competitive form and a capable jockey, offering a chance for a higher payout despite the wide draw.
Reasoning: At 10.2 odds, In The Clouds offers excellent value. Despite the tricky barrier 15, its recent 4th-place finish showed promise, and it found the line well last start. Anthony Darmanin’s high strike rate adds confidence, and the commentary flags it as a threat despite racing back in the field. In a below-average tempo, it has the potential to finish strongly and place or even upset.
Race 2. (13:22) Sporties Hotel Mdn Plate 1200m
Summary for Race 2
The race should see Dubai Affair leading or sitting prominently, with Billie The Great and I've Been Dreaming challenging late. Toorak Lad and Peak A Boom are riskier options but could surprise if the race unfolds in their favor.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅ 12: Dubai Affair: Strong form, top jockey, and market confidence make it the safest bet to win.
Reasoning: Dubai Affair stands out with strong market support (odds of 2.1), consistent form, and the benefit of Damian Lane’s ride. It has shown it can perform well from on speed, and the commentary highlights its readiness to peak third up. In an average tempo race, it’s well-placed to control the race and is the most reliable choice for a win bet.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 8: I've Been Dreaming - Attractive odds with consistent form and a strong finishing burst, offering a great chance for a higher payout.
Reasoning: At 11.2 odds, I've Been Dreaming offers excellent value. Its recent 2nd-place finish demonstrates good form, and it has a solid place strike rate (33.33%). The commentary notes it found the line well last start and has been consistent this preparation. With the potential to finish strongly in an average-paced race, it’s a strong candidate for a place or even an upset win.
Race 3. (13:57) Bonney Energy Gold Sovereign Stakes 1200m
Summary FOR RACE 3
The race should see Sanniya lead, with Crack The Shutters and Zany Girl close behind. Victory Tune will need a fast pace to make ground from the back, but Crack The Shutters’ combination of proven ability and ideal positioning makes her the top pick, while Victory Tune’s potential justifies his value status.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅ 6: Crack The Shutters – Her form, jockey, and race map give her the edge to win.
Why: Crack The Shutters stands out as the most reliable choice to win. Her recent maiden win at Hobart was impressive, showing she can finish strongly after sitting just off the pace—a tactic that should suit this race’s above-average tempo. The commentary emphasizes her upside and progression, and with Damian Lane aboard and a favorable barrier (2), she’s likely to get an ideal run. At $2.9, her odds reflect confidence without being too short, making her the best bet for a win.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 3: Value Bet: Victory Tune – At $13.0, he’s a promising improver with a top jockey, offering a high-reward option.
Why: At $13.0, Victory Tune meets the $6 minimum odds requirement and offers excellent value. While his form (0-2) isn’t eye-catching, his last run in the Blue Diamond Prelude was in a stronger field, and he’s expected to improve significantly. The commentary labels him a “big improver,” and Mark Zahra’s booking adds credibility. From barrier 3, he can settle midfield or further back and finish strongly if the pace suits. He’s a realistic chance to place or even win at juicy odds.
Race 4. (14:32) City Of Launceston Royal Rambo 1200m
Summary FOR RACE 4
The race will likely be run at an above-average tempo, with on-pace runners like In The Ocean and Bello Beau setting the speed. Geegees Gemstone and And Beyond are expected to finish strongly, making them top selections.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅ 1: Geegees Gemstone - The class horse with proven form at the track and distance. His ability to finish strongly in a fast-paced race makes him the safest bet to win.
Reasoning: Geegees Gemstone is the class horse of the field with an impressive win strike rate (44.44%) and a dominant record at Launceston (60% win rate). He excels at 1200m (50% win rate) and has won this event previously. Despite the wide barrier (10), his ability to finish strongly in a fast-paced race makes him the top pick. At odds of 3.7, he offers solid value for a win bet.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 2: And Beyond - Consistent performer at 1200m with recent wins over Geegees Gemstone, offering great value at 6.6 odds.
Reasoning: At 6.6 odds, And Beyond provides excellent value. He has a strong record at 1200m (41.67% win rate) and has beaten Geegees Gemstone in recent encounters. His consistent form, neutral barrier (6), and ability to finish well make him a strong contender for a place or win. Jockey Lauryn Bingley’s positive ROI adds to his appeal as a value bet.
Race 5. (15:07) Pfd Food Services 3Yo Classic 1200m
Summary FOR RACE 5
The above-average tempo should play into the hands of Ms Tasmania and Snowdonia, making them the horses to focus on for betting purposes.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅ 2: Ms Tasmania - The standout with proven form at Launceston and the ability to finish strongly in a fast-paced race.
Why: Ms Tasmania is the class horse with a 71.43% career win strike rate and a perfect 4-from-4 record at Launceston. Her recent 12th in the Mystic Journey was misleading—she was unlucky and should have been closer. Back in her age group, with a favorable barrier and strong finishing ability, she’s the top pick to win.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 7: Snowdonia - A consistent closer with upside and attractive odds, perfect for the race tempo.
Why: Snowdonia offers excellent value with a 100% place strike rate and a powerful finish (2nd last start in the Carbine Club). Jockey Damian Lane adds confidence, and her off-pace style suits the expected fast tempo. She’s a strong chance to win or place.
Race 6. (15:44) Ladbrokes Community Sports Series (Bm64) 2100m
Summary FOR RACE 6
The race should see an average tempo, with Lindrum and Ozturk setting the pace early. Montezulu’s late charge and Happy Clan’s potential to storm home from a wider run give them the edge as my top picks.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅6: Montezulu - is the safest bet to win. His form is on an upward trajectory, he’s proven at 2100m, and Mark Zahra’s booking seals the deal in a winnable race.
Why: Montezulu is my top pick to win due to his progressive form and suitability to the race conditions. He finished 3rd in his last start over 1600m, hitting the line strongly, which suggests the step up to 2100m will suit him perfectly—he has a 40% win strike rate (2 wins from 5 runs) at this distance. Jockey Mark Zahra, with a 13% strike rate in his last 100 starts, adds confidence, and trainer John Blacker (13% strike rate) has him in good shape. From barrier 6, he should settle midfield and unleash a strong finish in a race that lacks depth. At odds of 6.0, he’s a solid win bet.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 4 - Happy Clan: offers tremendous value at 14.0. His recent form, track affinity, and ability to finish strongly make him a standout each-way play.
Why: Happy Clan stands out as an excellent each-way value bet at 14.0 odds. He ran 3rd over 2200m at Hobart last start, showing he’s ready to peak after a month between runs. He has a liking for Launceston (1 win from 8 runs) and a decent record at 2100m (1 win from 9 runs). Jockey Blaike Mc Dougall (11% strike rate) can navigate the wide barrier 9, and if he finds cover, Happy Clan’s finishing ability makes him a big chance for a podium finish—or even a win—at juicy odds.
Race 7. (16:19) Vamos Stakes 1400m
Summary FOR RACE 7
The race should see a solid tempo, with Lovin' Bev leading and Geegees Mistruth getting a dream run just behind. Alvarinho's finishing burst makes her a strong value play to challenge late.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅ 13: Geegees Mistruth - The class act with perfect track form and a favorable setup.
Why: She's the standout in this field with a dominant first-up win in the Mystic Journey Stakes. Undefeated at Launceston (2/2) and suited by the rise to 1400m. Anthony Darmanin is a top jockey, and barrier 5 is favorable.At $1.60, she might be short, but she's the safest bet to win.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 6: Alvarinho - Consistent at Launceston, top jockey, and attractive odds for a place or win.
Why: At $10.00, Alvarinho offers excellent each-way value. Consistent at Launceston (placed in three of four starts) and placed in this race last year. Disappointed last start but was good in the Mystic Journey Stakes. Mark Zahra is a significant jockey upgrade, and barrier 6 allows her to settle closer and finish strongly.
Race 8. (16:03) Hobart Cup 2400m
Summary FOR RACE 8
The race should see Promises Kept leading or sitting prominently, with Alhambra Lad and Pure Grunt challenging late if the tempo allows. Betting involves risk, so please consult a financial adviser before placing bets.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅1: Promises Kept - Perfectly drawn in barrier 1, with strong form and a top jockey, making him the most likely winner.
Reasoning: Promises Kept is the standout choice due to his ideal barrier (1), allowing him to settle on or near the lead and control the race. His close 2nd in the Hobart Cup demonstrates peak form, and jockey Mark Zahra’s experience adds reliability. At odds of 2.6, he’s the safest bet to win.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 3: Alhambra Lad - A proven stayer with a big finish, offering great value at 6.6 odds.
Reasoning: At 6.6 odds, Alhambra Lad offers excellent value. His strong closing effort in the Hobart Cup (3rd, beaten by 1 length) shows he’s hitting form, and his 42.86% win strike rate at 2400m is impressive. Trainer P & M Payne’s high strike rate (18%) and barrier 6 provide flexibility to settle closer if needed. He’s a strong chance to place or win.
Race 9. (17:29) Hellova Street Stakes 1600m
Best to Back: 🏆
✅ 2: Munhamek - Munhamek, with his Victorian form and decent odds, is a compelling best bet.
Why: At 3.4 odds, Munhamek offers excellent value. His 1600m record (24% win strike rate) and recent performances in stronger Victorian races make him a serious contender. Barrier 2 and jockey Mark Zahra enhance his chances to race on pace and unleash his potent finish.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 9: Cartoon Graveyard -
Why: Race shape and speed could suit. Peak fitness and at the odds, it’s a knockout hope.
Race 10. (18:05) Shedcorptas (Bm64) 1200m
Summary FOR RACE 10
Wheeling should set the pace, with Gee Gees Me Boy poised to strike late. For betting, Gee Gees Me Boy is the top pick, while Wheeling is the smart value play.
Best to Back: 🏆
✅ 5: Gee Gees Me Boy - His form, barrier, and jockey make him the most reliable pick to win at 2.4 odds.
Why: Gee Gees Me Boy is the standout choice. His recent narrow defeat at Hobart (beaten by 0.20 lengths) shows he’s in top form, and his consistency in the placings is a big plus. Barrier 4 allows him to sit just behind the speed, perfectly suited to the above-average tempo. The addition of winkers and Damian Lane’s expertise (despite an 11% strike rate, he’s a proven big-race jockey) boost his chances. At 2.4 odds, he’s the safest bet to win.
Best Value: 💰
🎯 2: Wheeling - At 6.0 odds, his track record and current form offer great value for a win or place.
Why: Wheeling offers excellent value at 6.0 odds. His last-start win at Launceston, leading all the way, highlights his current peak form and track affinity (5 wins from 27 starts here). While he rises 3.5kg, his on-pace style suits the race tempo, and Jabez Johnstone’s 13.24% strike rate adds confidence. He’s a strong chance to win or place, making him an attractive each-way play.
